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Prof. Lawrence J. Christiano, Northwestern University:​DSGE Models Focusing on Banking

([西财新闻] 发布于 :2018-07-29 )

光华讲坛——社会名流与企业家论坛第5095

 

主题DSGE Models Focusing on Banking

主讲人Prof. Lawrence J. Christiano, Northwestern University

主持人:金融研究院院长Philip Dybvig教授

时间2018731日(星期二)下午13:30-16:30

 201881日(星期三)上午9:30-12:30

 201881日(星期三)下午13:30-16:30

 201882日(星期四)上午9:30-12:30

地点西南财经大学光华校区育才园701

主办单位:金融研究院 科研处

 

主讲人简介:

Lawrence J. Christiano是西北大学的教授。他于1992年加入西北大学(Northwestern University),是芝加哥联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve bank of Chicago)、克利夫兰(Cleveland)和明尼阿波利斯(Minneapolis)的顾问,也是美国国家经济研究局(NBER)的研究附属机构。2001年,他被选为计量经济学学会会员。Lawrence J. Christiano的研究主要集中在确定政府的货币和财政工具应该如何应对商业周期的冲击这一问题上。本研究分为两个部分;一是制定和估计宏观经济的经验模型,二是发展经济概念和计算方法,以确定均衡模型中的最优政策。他获得了国家科学基金会的大量资助,是《货币、信贷和银行业杂志》的副主编。

主要内容:

The outcome of any important macroeconomic policy change is the net effect of forces operating on different parts of the economy. A central challenge facing policymakers is how to assess the relative strength of those forces. Economists have a range of tools that can be used to make such assessments. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are the leading tool for making such assessments in an open and transparent manner. To be concrete, suppose we are interested in understanding the effects of a systematic change in policy, like switching from inflation targeting to price-level targeting. The most compelling strategy would be to do randomized control trials on actual economies, but that course of action is not available to us. So what are the alternatives? It is certainly useful to study historical episodes in which such a similar policy switch occurred or to use reduced-form time series methods, but these approaches also have obvious limitations. In the historical approach, the fact that no two episodes are exactly the same always raises questions about the relevance of a past episode for the current situation. In the case of reduced-form methods, it is not always clear which parameters should be changed and which should be kept constant across policy options. Inevitably, assessing the effects of a systematic policy change has to involve the use of a model.


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